The S&P 500 Is Rising But Most Stocks Are Falling: What’s Going On?

The Nasdaq 100 is now simply days away from its all-time excessive, however a minimum of one signal means that traders ought to tread rigorously. The variety of shares which have pushed one of many most-followed indexes is suspiciously slender. That’s, the index has moved up principally due to a couple of the preferred shares — the bogus intelligence (AI) corporations — together with these within the Magnificent 7.

Right here’s why traders ought to pay notably shut consideration to this “slender” inventory rally.

Nasdaq, S&P 500 rallies are slender: What it means 

Final week, the Nasdaq 100 inventory index hit an all-time excessive. The index had been powering increased for months, following the market meltdown that ensued after President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement in early April.

Like different main inventory indexes such because the Customary & Poor’s 500, the Nasdaq 100 has been having fun with a moderately blissful market melt-up. Traders have been anticipating corporations posting robust earnings in 2025 and the Fed decreasing rates of interest, which might assist to ease financing. 

However this new all-time excessive wasn’t a broad-based celebration. In truth, simply seven shares within the index hit their 52-week highs that day, based on Bloomberg, suggesting an issue with this rally that bullish traders could need to take note of — what consultants name the market’s “slender breadth.” 

It’s the same state of affairs within the S&P 500, based on DataTrek Analysis. Because the market’s April backside, the index’s high 20 largest shares have climbed 40.6 % in comparison with a complete return of 27.9 % for the index. However this efficiency implies that the 20 largest shares alone pulled the index increased, whereas the index’s remaining 480 shares have been truly web detrimental.  

Whereas traders could also be concentrating their bets on key tech shares similar to Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT)and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), that are all large AI performs, it could even be symptomatic of an unhealthy market. In distinction, a broader market would see extra shares hitting highs, as “a rising tide lifts all ships.” 

“The truth that the market breadth has continued to slender within the newest rally, given rising commerce and geopolitical dangers, suggests traders see it’s a ‘flight to high quality’ commerce as properly,” says Mark McCarron, CFA, chief funding officer at Wescott Monetary Advisory Group in Philadelphia.

“A broader market can be extra bullish and the truth that it stays slender means that traders could also be involved about weakening financial progress,” says McCarron.

Whereas a broad market is mostly extra bullish than a slender one, consultants say to not get spooked by a narrowing of the market’s breadth alone. 

“It is very important word that breadth is only one enter in a market forecast, and that slender breadth doesn’t essentially imply shares will carry out poorly going ahead,” says Corbin Grillo, CFA, director of funding technique, Linscomb Wealth in Houston.

However why are traders turning to AI shares? They’re the high-quality names of the second, they usually’re additionally key spots of sustained energy in a more durable financial system that’s beginning to see cracks.

“A number of the bigger shares within the Nasdaq 100 index are additionally the shares perceived to be the largest beneficiaries from ongoing funding in, and ultimately utilization of, AI,” says Grillo.

“Traders see the demand for synthetic intelligence as a steady supply of earnings progress and subsequently, even in a recession, it’s doubtless that capital expenditures for AI-enabled know-how will proceed, benefiting corporations like Nvidia, Broadcom and Superior Micro Gadgets,” says McCarron.

However the slender breadth in AI shares additionally implies that if AI doesn’t proceed to fulfill the market’s lofty expectations, then key tech-heavy indexes such because the Nasdaq 100 could also be priced too excessive. 

The Nasdaq 100 is a top-heavy index

The inventory market is dominated by large tech corporations similar to Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft and Apple (AAPL), which is mirrored in indexes just like the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 or the Nasdaq Composite. So these shares are key to how these indexes transfer anyway. However the truth that only a handful of shares are driving the market’s efficiency — and people closely concentrated in AI-focused areas — is telling. 

The weightings within the Nasdaq 100 are notably closely tilted towards tech (based on Slick Charts as of Aug. 19):

1. Nvidia – 14.10%
2. Microsoft – 12.44%
3. Apple – 11.21%
4. Amazon – 7.97%
5. Meta Platforms – 6.20%
6. Broadcom – 4.53%
7. Alphabet Class A – 4.14%
8. Alphabet Class C – 3.88%
9. Tesla – 3.48%
10. Netflix – 1.69%

In complete, these 10 shares make up 69.64 % — practically a full 70 % — of the index’s motion. So this choose group of shares virtually needs to be doing properly for the Nasdaq 100 to fare properly. The truth that just a few shares are hitting 52-week highs because the index does recommend that the robust efficiency is concentrated in these shares and principally not within the index’s 90 others. And with the exceptions of Tesla (TSLA) and Netflix (NFLX), the 2 smallest on the record, they’re all AI performs, too.

“Traditionally, market indexes just like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have usually been pushed by a concentrated variety of corporations, however with the highest 10 constituents of the Nasdaq 100 representing over 50 % of the index, company-specific dangers can dominate,” says McCarron.

For traders, this focus implies that an index is probably not practically as diversified as it could look like. So it could be uncovered to the efficiency of comparatively few corporations. And if these corporations are uncovered to comparable dangers — similar to a possible slowdown in AI spending — then traders could have much more concentrated danger on their fingers than it appears at first.

This focus means traders should bear one other danger as a part of the AI-driven market, and it means they should make good investing strikes. 

“It’s extra necessary than ever to remain disciplined, diversified, and persist with a long-term technique,” says Grillo. “It’s pure to need to allocate extra to shares which might be producing pleasure and which have carried out properly lately. However there’s no assure that the components that drove outperformance up to now will persist going ahead, particularly with the rise in valuations.” 

Backside line

Traders’ focus in the marketplace’s largest, tech-heavy corporations creates dangers, and this focus could sign the market is preparing for a shift. That shift could also be down, however it could even be a broadening out of the market to different key areas similar to small- and mid-cap shares. So, whereas downturns may be unsettling, it’s very important to take a long-term perspective in your investments and attempt to not get too rattled when shares get shaken up.